“The charts, as interpreted by Mark Sebastian, recommend that the S&P 500 might stay in the home of ache by way of early February,” the “Mad Money” host stated.
Nevertheless, Cramer stated if the founding father of OptionPit.com’s forecast proves right, “you want to maintain your nostril and use this weak spot to purchase the shares of high quality corporations that make actual merchandise or present actual providers and generate actual earnings.”
Sebastian’s outlook is rooted in his evaluation of the CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 choices. The VIX stands at practically 29 on Friday, a substantial enhance from the place it was simply over every week in the past, when it traded within the 17s.
A chart displaying the rally within the VIX (backside) and the declines of the S&P 500 (high).
Mad Cash with Jim Cramer
“It rallied relentlessly for the final three weeks,” Cramer stated, which, in accordance with Sebastian, “is dangerous information for the inventory market.”
“When it rises like this, it signifies that merchants have been shopping for safety for themselves each time the VIX tries to again off,” Cramer defined. “Even on days when the market manages to rally, they do not transfer to unwind these hedges, they purchase extra insurance coverage.”
Sebastian believes VIX futures additionally paint a troubling story, Cramer stated. They’ve began to maneuver right into a state of backwardation, Cramer stated. “In different phrases, the present volatility index is buying and selling at a premium to the February VIX futures, and the February futures are beginning to transfer above the March futures,” he stated.
VIX futures wanting ahead in 2022.
Mad Cash with Jim Cramer
This uncommon improvement most lately occurred in March 2020, through the Covid pandemic sell-off, Cramer stated. It additionally occurred in October 2018, when Wall Road was rattled by Federal Reserve motion.
“Briefly, just about each time the market sells off dramatically, Sebastian says the VIX futures have a tendency to enter backwardation a couple of third of the way in which by way of the devastation. Then the promoting continues for a couple of extra weeks,” Cramer stated.
“Sadly, that is the place he thinks we’re proper now, as a result of we’re not coping with a VIX spike, we’re coping with a VIX swell, and people at all times last more than you would like,” Cramer added.
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